I like your article for the precise explanation and evidence you provide. However, I think you're wrong about the instinct or limitation you present.

What I think you don't understand is that education makes us truly human. Without education we are barely half man and half animal. Look at infants. Even though they are potential human beings, they act and think like little animals. The purpose of education is to enable us to learn new things, especially concepts, and to become true human beings.

The problem with probabilities is that even though our civilisation discovered them a few centuries ago, the concept hasn't percolated down to the general population. So for me, the problem is not bad instinct, but bad education. And in our time, where information is essential, there are many concepts, such as probabilities, that the general population (even professionals) don't understand. This is because we come from a simplistic, rigid and boxed-in view of the world.

What's funny is that our brains are Bayesian computers that only use probabilities to function. But there aren't any high-level models embedded in their core to instinctively understand probabilities and make sense of our complex and chaotic world.